![]() What looks increasingly apparent is that Russia is still focused on seizing the whole of the Donbas - it will not want to lose Bakhmut, and is seeking to push towards the Oskil river to the north to provide a natural boundary and buffer for its forces. The Russian forces are struggling to make progress because the Ukrainians are exploiting western-provided provision weapons that outreach Russian artillery, which are able to destroy Russian artillery at range - what Ukrainians are calling their "Fire Fist". Instead, the UK's Ministry of Defence has stated that Russia is mounting "small unit assaults" in the Luhansk and Kharkiv oblast, some way away from the main frontline.Īlthough the Russians are only making marginal gains, the fact they are committing scarce resources to this front demonstrates Russian military priorities. Mindful of the challenges facing the Russian military - low morale uncertainty about which leaders Putin can trust and the absence of Wagner forces in Ukraine - one would expect Russia to focus its resources on combating the Ukrainian offensive. It is increasingly evident that the Ukraine "main effort" of its current offensive is to encircle Bakhmut and to breakthrough the Russian defensive lines to the east of Zaporizhzhia. In practice, there would be very little the West could do in response, despite the fact that such a move would be as unwelcome by the Belarusians as it was to Ukrainians.Ī very worrying period for the Belarusian population. However, President Lukashenko would be very unlikely to ask for support in the event of a Russian coup. When Russia invaded Ukraine, President Zelenskyy asked for international support, which the West was very happy to provide. If Putin does seize Belarus, what would the West do in response? He invaded Ukraine to stop it joining NATO and despite the invasion faltering, Putin remains focused on securing a buffer - the Donbas - between the two countries.īy infiltrating Belarus with thousands of Russian military soldiers, Putin is invading Belarus by stealth. Putin has made no secret of his desire to create a buffer-zone between Russia and the West. Ove the past few days, Wagner military personnel have moved into "temporary" camps in Belarus and are apparently being used to train the Belarus military. It has launched air attacks from Belarusian airfields and Russia has recently forward-deployed tactical nuclear weapons on its neighbour's soil. Russia has mounted military operations against Ukraine from Belarusian soil. However, behind the rhetoric, Russia is steadily increasing the number of Russian military forces in Belarus. Any attack on Belarus will be considered an attack against Russia and will provoke an appropriate response. President Putin framed the discussions as Russia providing security guarantees to Belarus. Lukashenko is a "puppet" of the Putin regime and has been described as the "last European dictator". Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko met Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier today, ostensibly to discuss developing a strategic partnership between the two countries.
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